Methodology publications

We regularly publish work on new methods and where we have made significant improvements to existing methods. We have a number of channels:

Office for National Statistics (ONS) working paper series

Government Statistical Service (GSS) methodology for official statistics (this also includes the discontinued survey methodology bulletin and GSS methodology series).

The table provides a comprehensive list of all publications authored or co-authored by the Office for National Statistics Methodology Division.

Please contact us at for copies of anything not available, broken links or missing items.


Crime Survey for England and Wales transformation research on the ethics of online data collection relating to sensitive topics: October 2020Article2020transformation, online mode, ethics, qualitative research, sensitive questionsBetts, P.
Factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and outbreaks in long-term care facilities in England: a national cross-sectional surveyJournal paper2020COVID surveyShallcross, L., Burke, D., Abbott, O., Donaldson, A., Hallat, G., Hayward, A., Hopkins, S., Krutikov, M., Sharp, K., Wardman, L., Thorne, S.
The framework for estimating coverage in the 2011 Census of England and Wales: Combining dual-system estimation with ratio estimationJournal paper2019census dual-system estimationBrown, J.J., Sexton, C., Abbott, O. and Smith, P.A.
Population statistics without a Census or registerJournal paper2020population statistics, administrative dataAbbott, O., Tinsley, B., Milner, S., Taylor, A. C. and Archer, R.
Design of the 2011 Census Coverage SurveyJournal paper2012sample design censusBrown, J., Abbott, O., Smith, P. A.
Small area estimation strategy for the 2011 Census in England and WalesJournal paper2018small area estimation, censusBaffour, B., Silva, D., Veiga, A., Sexton C., Brown, J. J.
Generic Statistical Data Editing Model (GSDEM)Paper2019editing and imputationGeneric Statistical Data Editing Model GSDEM
Measuring statistical uncertainty in administrative-based population estimates (PDF, 1.2MB)Paper2019uncertainty, population estimates, simulationBlackwell, L., Stokes, K. and Smith, P.W.
Placing administrative data at the heart of the UK population statistics system; how the total survey error framework is helping to inform the use and design of integrated data solutions (PDF, 1.14MB)Paper2019total survey error, longitudinal, data integrationBlackwell, L. and Rogers, N.
Methodology for measuring uncertainty in ONS local authority mid-year population estimates: 2012 to 2016Working paper2017uncertainty, population estimates, simulationONS Demographic Methods Centre and the Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute (S3RI)
Synthetic data pilotWorking paper2019synthetic dataBates, A. G., Spakulová, I., Dove, I., Mealor, A. 
Using data science for the address matching serviceWorking paper2019address matching, data scienceSpakulova, I., Gask, K., James, M., Hopper, N. A., Niemi, S., Hoskisson, J.
An error framework for longitudinal administrative sources; its use for understanding the statistical properties of data for international migrationWorking paper2010data quality, total survey error, longitudinal administrative dataOffice for National Statistics
Imputing an admin-based income variable linked to 2011 England and Wales Census dataWorking paper2020income, imputation, censusGreenaway, M., Leather, F., Summerball, A., Taylor, A.
Admin-based population estimates and statistical uncertainty: July 2020Article2020administrative data, population estimates, quality, uncertaintyBlackwell, L
Measures of uncertainty - all confidence intervalsArticle2017population estimates, statistical uncertainty, simulationBlackwell, L
Guidance on interpreting the statistical measures of uncertainty in ONS local authority mid-year population estimatesArticle2017uncertainty, population estimates, simulationBlackwell, L
Indicative uncertainty intervals for the admin-based population estimates: July 2020Article2020uncertainty, administrative data, population estimatesBlackwell, L
Measures of statistical uncertainty summaryArticle2017uncertainty, population estimates, simulationBlackwell, L
Methodology for creating uncertainty intervals for mid-year population estimates by single year of age and sex: July 2020Article2020population estimates, statistical uncertainty, simulationBlackwell, L
Population estimation from administrative data-based modelsPaper2013estimation, administrative dataAbbott, O., Tinsley, B., Brown, J.
Measurement Error in Longitudinal DataBook chapter2021measurement error, longitudinal data, survey methodologyBlackwell, L., Rogers, N., Cernat, A., Sakshaug, J. W.
A Practical Introduction to Index NumbersBook2015index numbersRalph, J., O'Neill, R., Winton, J.
100 years of the census of production in the UKGSS Paper2009census of productionSmith, P. A. and Penneck, S.
Using Statistical Modelling to estimate international migrationWorking paper2021time series, migration, modellingRogers, N., Blackwell, L., Elliott, D., Large, A., Ridden, S., Wu, M.
Assessing the Generalised Structure Preserving Estimator (GSPREE) for Local Authority Population Estimates by Ethnic Group in EnglandGSS Paper2016small area estimation, ethnicityCorrea-Onel, S., Whitworth, A. and Piller, K.
Estimating distributions of household income for middle layer super output areas in 2011 using small area estimation methodsGSS Paper2010small area estimation, incomeNorth, R. and Whitworth, A.
How face-to-face interviewer attitudes and beliefs moderate the effect of monetary incentive on UK Labour Force Survey response ratesArticle2020incentives, interviewer attitudes, labour force surveyLowthian, P. and Lloyd, L.
Changes to the Wealth and Assets Survey weighting system because of a shift in the reporting periodArticle2020wealth and assets, weightingLowthian, P. and Zobay, O.
Inflation: History and MeasurementBook2017inflation, economic statistics, price indexO'Neill, R., Ralph, J. and Smith, P. A.
Developments in Business Survey Methodology in the Office for National Statistics, 1994-2000Journal paper2003economic statistics, surveys, business register, estimationSmith, P. A., Pont, M. and Jones, T.
Redesign in a statistical office - sociodemographic statistics in the Office for National StatisticsJournal paper2014administrative data, coverage surveySmith, P. A.
Should we sample a time series more frequently?: decision support via multirate spectrum estimationJournal paper2016time series, bayesian, spectrum estimation, aliasingNason, G., Powell, B., Elliott, D. and Smith, P. A.
Changing Industrial Classification to SIC (2007) at the UK Office for National StatisticsJournal paper2017SIC, classification, quality, conversion, overlapSmith, P. A. and James, G. G.
Quality procedures for survey transitions - experiments, time series and discontinuitiesJournal paper2008time series, discontinuities, surveysBrakel, J. van den, Smith, P. A. and Compton S.
ONS web scraping policyONS Policy2018web scrapingGreenaway, M.
Collecting and using social media for statistics and statistical research policyONS Policy2018social media, web scrapingWardman, L.
Tracking and modelling prices using web-scraped price microdata: Towards automated daily consumer price index forecastingJournal paper2017dynamic in?ation model, high frequency in?ation prediction, hn?ation estimation, state space modelPowell, B., Nason, G., Elliott, D., Mayhew, M., Davies, J., Winton, J.
An introduction to applications of wavelet benchmarking with seasonal adjustmentJournal paper2016benchmarking, seasonal adjustment, structural time series, thresholding, waveletsSayal, H., Aston, J., Elliott, D., Ombao, H.
2011 UK Census Coverage assessment and adjustment strategyPaper2007census coverageAbbott, O.
Counting and estimating hard-to-survey populations in the 2011 CensusBook chapter2014censusAbbott, O., Compton, G.
Estimating and correcting for over-count in the 2011 CensusSMB Paper2011census over-countLarge, A., Brown, J., Abbott O., Taylor A.
Linkage of Census and Administrative Data to Quality Assure the 2011 Census for England and WalesJournal paper2015record linkage, administrative data coverage, linkage methodsBlackwell, L., Charlesworth, A., Rogers, N.
Longitudinal Data for Official Immigration StatisticsUNECE Paper2019total survey error, longitudinal, international migrationRogers, N. and Blackwell, L.
Ethnic-minority groups in England and Wales—factors associated with the size and timing of elevated COVID-19 mortality: a retrospective cohort study linking census and death recordsJournal paper2020COVID, ethnicity, census, mortalityAyoubkhani, D., Nafilyan, V., White, C., Goldblatt, P., Gaughan, C. H., Blackwell, L., Rogers, N., Banerjee, A., Khunti, K., Glickman, M., Humberstone, B., Diamond, I. D.
Religious affiliation and COVID-19-related mortality: a retrospective cohort study of prelockdown and postlockdown risks in England and WalesJournal paper2021COVID, religion, census, mortalityGaughan, C. H., Ayoubkhani, D., Nafilyan, V., Goldblatt, P., White, C., Tingay, K., Bannister, N.
Ethnicity, household composition and COVID-19 mortality: a national linked data studyJournal paper2021Clinical, ethnic studies, infectious diseases, public healthNafilyan, V., Islam, N., Ayoubkhani, D., Gilles, C., Katikireddi, S. V., Mathur, R., Summerfield, A., Tingay, K., Asaria, M., John, A., Goldblatt, P., Banerjee, A., Glickman, M., Khunti, K.
An external validation of the QCovid risk prediction algorithm for risk of mortality from COVID-19 in adults: national validation cohort study in EnglandPreprint2021Qcovid risk, mortality, COVIDNafilyan, V., Humberstone, B., Mehta, N., Diamond, I. D., Coupland, C., Lorenzi, L., Pawelek, P., Schofield, R., Morgan, J., Brown, P., Lyons, R., Sheikh, A., Hippisley-Cox, J.
Post-covid syndrome in individuals admitted to hospital with covid-19: retrospective cohort studyJournal paper2021COVID, long covid, organ dysfunctionAyoubkhani, D., Khunti, K., Nafilyan, V., Maddox, T., Humberstone, B., Diamond, I. D., Banerjee, A.
Updating ethnic contrasts in deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), England and Wales: deaths occurring 2 March to 28 July 2020Article2020COVID, mortality, ethnicityWhite, C. and Ayoubkhani, D.